A government shutdown has stalled the long-awaited cost-of-living adjustment, leaving retirees anxious and doubtful about its real value.
A frustrating wait for 70 million Americans
For more than 70 million Americans relying on Social Security benefits, October usually brings one of the most anticipated announcements of the year: the annual cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA. This year, that moment has been postponed.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was set to release September’s inflation report on October 15, the final data needed by the Social Security Administration (SSA) to calculate the 2026 COLA. But a federal government shutdown that began October 1 has forced a delay in releasing critical economic reports.
While Social Security payments themselves remain unaffected, retirees will have to wait longer for news about how much their benefits will rise next year. The delay highlights how fragile key government functions have become during political gridlock — and how directly those disruptions affect seniors’ financial security.
The shutdown halts inflation data needed for COLA
Social Security’s COLA is meant to preserve beneficiaries’ buying power as prices rise. It’s based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which tracks how the cost of goods and services changes over time.
Only the third-quarter CPI-W data — from July, August, and September — determines the COLA for the following year. Normally, the BLS releases September’s inflation report in mid-October. However, this year’s government shutdown has temporarily halted the collection and release of that data.
The BLS has now rescheduled the release of the September inflation report to October 24 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, according to information shared with CNBC. Even if the shutdown continues, key BLS employees will be brought back to ensure the report is completed.
This revised timeline means retirees, disabled workers, and survivors will likely learn their 2026 COLA on October 24, though the SSA may take longer than usual to make it official.
How to estimate your 2026 Social Security raise
Even before the SSA confirms it, retirees can estimate their own COLA increase using publicly available inflation data.
Here’s how it works in simple terms:
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Take the average CPI-W for July, August, and September 2025.
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Compare it to the average CPI-W from the same months in 2024.
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The percentage difference between these two numbers, rounded to the nearest tenth, is next year’s COLA.
In 2024, the Q3 average CPI-W was 308.729. The July and August 2025 readings were 316.349 and 317.306. Once September’s figure is known, the new average can be calculated.
If projections hold, analysts expect a 2.7% to 2.8% COLA for 2026.
| Year | Q3 CPI-W Average | Annual COLA |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 308.729 | 3.2% |
| 2025* | ~317 (est.) | 2.7%–2.8%* |
(*Projected data based on independent forecasts)
That modest increase would translate to an extra $54 to $56 per month for the average retired worker, and around $43 to $44 for disabled and survivor beneficiaries.
Why the 2026 COLA matters more than it seems
Although the 2026 COLA may look small compared with recent years, it marks a historic milestone for the Social Security program.
If projections are correct, it will be the fifth consecutive year that COLAs have met or exceeded 2.5%. The last time this happened was from 1988 to 1997.
This streak reflects persistent inflation across housing, food, and health care costs. The adjustment also comes as trade tensions and tariffs under President Donald Trump’s policies continue to lift prices in certain sectors, indirectly affecting the inflation data used for COLA calculations.
However, even this steady string of raises does not mean retirees are keeping up with real living costs.
Why retirees still lose purchasing power
The COLA is designed to keep benefits aligned with inflation, but it fails to capture the unique spending patterns of older Americans.
The CPI-W measures the spending habits of urban wage earners, not retirees. As a result, it gives more weight to categories like transportation and apparel while underweighting essentials such as medical care and housing, which make up a larger share of seniors’ expenses.
According to a 2025 report by The Senior Citizens League, Social Security benefits have lost more than 35% of their purchasing power since 2000. Rising housing and health care costs are the main culprits.
Retirees typically spend:
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More than 30% of their income on housing, compared to under 25% for working-age Americans
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Nearly 15% on medical costs, including prescriptions and services
These categories have seen faster price increases than the overall CPI-W, meaning even after COLA adjustments, many seniors feel poorer each year.
Medicare premium hikes will erode COLA gains
Adding to the challenge, many retirees will see their COLA partially — or fully — offset by rising Medicare Part B premiums, which are often deducted directly from Social Security checks.
The 2025 Medicare Trustees Report projects the Part B premium will jump 11.5% to $206.20 per month in 2026. This is one of the steepest increases in recent years.
That means for many seniors, the expected $54–$56 COLA increase will barely cover the higher medical deduction, leaving little or no real gain in take-home income.
For millions of retirees, the long wait for the COLA announcement may end with disappointment rather than relief.
What this means for retirees and the future of Social Security
The 2026 COLA delay underscores deeper concerns about the sustainability and fairness of the Social Security system. With the trust fund projected to be depleted by the mid-2030s unless Congress acts, today’s retirees face both short-term uncertainty and long-term risks.
While the delayed inflation report is a temporary setback, it raises broader questions: Are COLAs an effective way to protect seniors from inflation? Should a new index that reflects older Americans’ expenses be considered?
Many advocacy groups are urging policymakers to adopt a Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), which would give greater weight to health and housing costs, offering a more accurate measure of retirees’ financial reality.
Until then, retirees can expect COLAs to remain an imperfect cushion against rising costs — helpful, but never quite enough.
Despite the excitement that usually surrounds Social Security’s annual raise, this year’s delay feels more like a reminder of the system’s limits than a reason to celebrate. As inflation pressures persist and medical costs surge, the wait for clarity on 2026 benefits continues — but for most retirees, the reward may feel painfully small.
What are your thoughts on the COLA delay and the rising Medicare costs? Share your opinion and join the conversation with other readers on social media.
