Milei Surprises with Strong Performance in Primary Elections
Argentina’s political landscape was shaken on Sunday, August 13, 2023, when far-right populist Javier Milei emerged as the biggest vote-getter in primary elections to choose presidential candidates for the October general election. Milei, a libertarian economist and lawmaker, secured about 30% of the total vote, according to official results, surpassing the main conservative opposition bloc and the ruling Peronist coalition, which both received around 28%.
Milei’s strong performance was a stinging rebuke of the political establishment in a nation battered by economic woes, with inflation over 100%, rising poverty and a rapidly depreciating currency. Milei attracted support by calling for the country to replace the peso with the US dollar, abolishing the Central Bank, and slashing taxes and public spending. He also expressed admiration for former US President Donald Trump and voiced controversial views on social issues, such as denying climate change, opposing sex education and legalizing the sale of human organs.
Milei Vows to End the “Political Caste” and Rebuild Argentina
Celebrating his victory at his election headquarters in downtown Buenos Aires, Milei vowed to end the “parasitic, corrupt and useless political caste that exists in this country” and to rebuild Argentina with a different vision. “Today we took the first step toward the reconstruction of Argentina,” he said. “A different Argentina is impossible with the same people as always.”
Milei also criticized the current president, Alberto Fernandez, and his predecessor and vice president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, for their handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has claimed more than 120,000 lives in Argentina. He accused them of imposing “tyrannical” lockdowns that violated individual freedoms and harmed the economy. He also blamed them for failing to secure enough vaccines and for negotiating a debt restructuring deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that he said was detrimental to Argentina’s interests.
Milei Faces Challenges and Criticism from Rivals and Analysts
Despite his surprising success in the primary elections, Milei faces several challenges and criticism from his rivals and analysts. He will have to broaden his appeal beyond his core supporters, who are mostly young, urban and male, and reach out to other sectors of society, such as women, workers and rural voters. He will also have to contend with a divided opposition that may try to unite against him in the general election. Moreover, he will have to present a coherent and realistic plan for how he would implement his radical proposals if he became president.
Some of his critics have accused him of being a demagogue who exploits people’s frustration and anger with populist rhetoric and simplistic solutions. They have also warned that his policies could lead to social unrest, violence and instability in Argentina. They have also questioned his temperament and suitability for office, citing his frequent outbursts and insults against journalists, politicians and other public figures.
Milei Represents a Regional Trend of Anti-Establishment Candidates
Milei’s rise in Argentina reflects a regional trend of anti-establishment candidates who have gained popularity in Latin America amid widespread discontent with traditional parties and institutions. In recent years, several outsiders have won or reached runoffs in presidential elections in countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia. These candidates have offered diverse ideological platforms, ranging from left-wing populism to right-wing conservatism, but they have shared a common rejection of the status quo and a promise of change.
Analysts have attributed this phenomenon to various factors, such as economic stagnation, social inequality, corruption scandals, political polarization and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. They have also noted that these candidates have used social media and alternative media outlets to bypass mainstream media and connect directly with their followers.
Milei Could Upset Financial Markets and International Relations
Milei’s potential victory in October could have significant implications for Argentina’s financial markets and international relations. Analysts have warned that a better-than-expected showing for Milei could trigger a sharp plunge in the value of the peso and a rise in bond yields, as investors would fear his unpredictable and unconventional policies. They have also cautioned that Milei could face difficulties in dealing with creditors, such as the IMF and private bondholders, who may demand more fiscal discipline and structural reforms from Argentina.
Additionally, Milei could alter Argentina’s foreign policy orientation and alignment. He has expressed admiration for Trump and his “America First” approach, as well as for other right-wing leaders such as Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro and Hungary’s Viktor Orban. He has also criticized China’s influence in Latin America and opposed Venezuela’s socialist regime. He has also advocated for Argentina’s sovereignty over the Falkland Islands (Malvinas), which are claimed by both Argentina and Britain.
