Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has set a sky-high target for Tesla’s stock, forecasting it could hit $2,600 by 2029. But does that bold bet hold water—or is it all just simulated smoke?
A Forecast or a Fantasy?
Ark Invest didn’t just throw out a number and hope for the best. Their $2,600 Tesla target for 2029 comes from thousands of simulations. It’s a Monte Carlo model, basically a way of crunching different future scenarios based on shifting variables. The model estimates a 25% chance of TSLA being under $2,000 and another 25% chance it shoots above $3,100.
Right now, Tesla’s trading at about $320. So yeah, that’s one heck of a leap.
And let’s be honest—long-term simulations like these rarely pan out exactly. Just ask 2021 Ark, which forecasted a $3,000 expected Tesla price by 2025. Two years out, and the stock’s barely cracked $320. Oops.
History Doesn’t Lend Much Confidence
The numbers tell a story—and it’s not one that’s all sunshine.
In 2021, Ark’s Tesla forecast for 2025 had a low-end scenario of $1,500. That was the “worst case.” In 2022, they upped the ante, predicting a bear case of $2,900 by 2026. Here’s how those predictions stack up to reality:
| Forecast Year | Target Year | Bear Case | Bull Case | Expected | Current Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2025 | $1,500 | $4,000 | $3,000 | ~$320 |
| 2022 | 2026 | $2,900 | $5,800 | $4,600 | ~$320 |
Tesla’s current price would need to jump over 800% just to hit the low end of the 2026 forecast. That’s a moonshot in a shaky market.
But here’s the kicker—Ark’s models aren’t guarantees. They’re more like directional vibes with numbers attached.
Where Ark’s Thinking Isn’t Crazy
Still, there’s a nugget of logic inside the madness. Ark’s entire thesis hinges on one thing: robotaxis. Specifically, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) tech taking over the roads.
The firm believes that by 2029:
-
88% of Tesla’s enterprise value will come from robotaxis
-
Only 9% will be based on traditional electric vehicle sales
So if Tesla doesn’t win the robotaxi race, Ark’s model collapses like a bad soufflé. Investors aren’t buying a car company—they’re buying a software-driven mobility giant that doesn’t really exist yet.
That’s a bold assumption to lean on.
But Tesla’s Robotaxi Bet Is Risky Business
Let’s not kid ourselves: the robotaxi thing isn’t a done deal.
Tesla hasn’t even started volume production on the Cybercab, its first vehicle designed specifically for autonomous taxi service. Not only that, but the legal hurdles are enormous. Regulators are skittish, crashes make headlines, and nobody really knows how safe “unsupervised FSD” actually is.
There’s also the fact that Tesla isn’t the only player in this space. And even though some big names like Ford and GM have backed out, tech-first startups and deep-pocketed giants (Waymo, Amazon’s Zoox) are still charging ahead.
Even for Tesla, this is all unproven territory.
But Tesla Still Has Something Others Don’t
Despite all the uncertainty, there are reasons Ark’s optimism isn’t totally wild.
Tesla’s still leading the EV race by a long shot. While legacy automakers are struggling to scale or even profit from their EV programs, Tesla is posting consistent deliveries, making its own batteries, and slashing costs.
And it has two big weapons in the robotaxi battle:
-
Data: Millions of miles of real-world FSD testing data
-
Cash: Enough in the bank to keep the lights on for years, even if the Cybercab takes a while
Plus, with lower-cost EVs on the way—perfect for conversion into robotaxis—Tesla could flood the streets with semi-affordable, FSD-ready vehicles.
Still, it’s all about if they can get the tech right.
Ark’s Bet Is Bold—but It’s Not Blind
Cathie Wood and her team aren’t just throwing darts in the dark. They’re making a high-conviction bet on a long-term tech disruption.
They’ve said it outright: if Tesla nails autonomous driving, the stock could skyrocket. If it doesn’t? Well, the downside’s ugly. But that’s baked into the model too.
The truth is, this isn’t about selling Model Ys. It’s about turning every Tesla into a money-making robot on wheels.
You don’t have to buy into it. But if you’re buying Tesla now, you’re not really betting on cars anymore—you’re betting on robotaxis.
Elon’s Not Backing Down
Love him or loathe him, Elon Musk is full steam ahead.
He says Cybercab production is set for 2026. He’s been talking about robotaxis for years, and this time, he might just get the timing right. Tesla’s expected to launch a full FSD service in at least one city soon, which could be the first real-world test of Ark’s bold predictions.
And if that launch goes well? Tesla’s stock might just have the fuel to hit orbit.
So… $2,600 in Four Years?
Hard to say. Betting on Tesla means betting on tech no one’s cracked yet. But then again, betting against Elon hasn’t exactly been a winning strategy in the past decade.
Ark’s model might be a stretch—but it’s not nonsense. Just don’t forget: bold predictions don’t guarantee bold results.
