BigBear.ai’s Wild Ride: Can the AI Underdog Stay in the Game?

Investors are hungry for AI opportunities, and BigBear.ai is on their radar — but with erratic leadership and shaky numbers, this stock may not be ready for prime time.

BigBear.ai isn’t a name that rolls off the tongue like Nvidia or Palantir, but it’s getting noticed. With a stock price that’s surged 200% in the past year, it’s hard to ignore. Still, strip away the hype and things look a little different. Between modest revenue growth and revolving-door leadership, this AI hopeful might be more flash than substance — at least for now.

AI Hype Lifts the Stock — But It Cuts Both Ways

BigBear.ai’s stock has been on a rollercoaster, and not the good kind with a smooth ending.

A 200% gain over the past year sounds incredible. But zoom out a little, and it’s a much messier picture. Since mid-February, the stock’s dropped by about 60%. And since going public in late 2021? Same story — a 60% decline. So, what gives?

For one, it’s riding the broader AI wave. Investors are throwing cash at anything AI-adjacent, hoping to catch the next breakout. BigBear.ai, with its focus on data analytics across defense, healthcare, and logistics, checks the right buzzword boxes.

Another factor? Its connection to Palantir. The data analytics giant reported strong Q1 sales — up 33% — and inked 139 deals worth $1 million or more. That kind of momentum rubs off, especially since Palantir is a strategic partner of BigBear.ai. The thinking is simple: Palantir wins big, maybe BigBear does too.

Still, that logic is a bit thin. There’s no guarantee that association equals results. Just being near the action doesn’t mean you’re part of it.

Revenue’s Not Exactly Inspiring

Here’s where things start to go sideways.

In Q1 2025, BigBear.ai reported $34.8 million in revenue — a 5% bump from last year. That’s not terrible… for a mature company. But for a scrappy AI upstart? It’s underwhelming. Start-ups are supposed to sprint, not shuffle.

Management’s full-year guidance isn’t thrilling either: $160 to $180 million in revenue. That’s only a 7% increase at the midpoint.

It’s hard to get excited about a company trying to ride the AI boom when the numbers aren’t moving much.

• Annualized revenue growth expected: 7%

• Gross margin: 28.54%

• 52-week range: $1.17 – $10.36

• Market cap: $1B (as of June 2025)

Compare those figures to competitors, and it becomes clearer: BigBear.ai’s size and scale just don’t stack up.

Leadership Drama Raises Red Flags

Maybe even more concerning than the revenue? The revolving door at the top.

BigBear.ai is already on its third CEO in four years. That’s not a good sign for any company — let alone one still trying to define itself.

The latest to take the helm is Kevin McAleenan, former acting Secretary of Homeland Security. On paper, that background sounds impressive, especially for a company with deep government ties. But in practice, frequent leadership changes often signal confusion, not confidence.

Building an AI company isn’t just about algorithms. It’s about long-term execution. And without consistent leadership, strategy can easily unravel.

Investors Are Watching the Wrong Signals

This part’s tricky because there’s a real “shiny object” effect going on.

Right now, AI stocks are hot. Every day, headlines hype new breakthroughs, billion-dollar deals, and eye-popping valuations. So when a small AI firm like BigBear.ai makes any movement at all, people start to speculate.

But speculation doesn’t build companies — results do.

It’s easy to mistake potential for progress. Just because a company operates in AI doesn’t mean it’s executing well. With BigBear.ai, the fundamentals don’t seem to support the stock’s recent excitement. Sales are crawling. Leadership’s shaky. And execution hasn’t caught up to the promise.

Here’s the kicker: If BigBear.ai weren’t labeled as an “AI company,” would anyone be paying this much attention?

Probably not.

Comparing BigBear.ai to the Field

Let’s put things side by side. BigBear.ai and Palantir both focus on AI-powered data analytics. But the gap between the two is huge — both in scale and success.

Palantir is executing. BigBear.ai is still figuring things out.

That contrast matters. It helps investors see the difference between hype-driven movement and proven performance.

Bottom Line: This One’s Still Too Risky

Here’s the honest read: BigBear.ai could eventually get it together. Its contracts in defense and healthcare are real. The data analytics market is growing. And AI isn’t going anywhere.

But right now? It’s a risky bet.

The stock’s recent surge feels like it’s built more on momentum than on merit. Investors hoping for another Palantir-like breakout may end up disappointed if the fundamentals don’t start to match the market’s enthusiasm.

Young companies need two things above all: fast growth and steady leadership. BigBear.ai has neither. For now, that makes it more of a watchlist name than a portfolio staple.