Boeing’s 2025 Upswing: Can the Stock Keep Climbing?

Boeing’s shares have jumped 13.6% this year, leaving the S&P 500’s modest gains in the dust. The credit? Fresh leadership under CEO Kelly Ortberg, who took the helm last August and has been steering the company with steady hands. But with the stock rally underway, the big question lingers: will this momentum last?

Boeing’s Clear Goals for 2025 Are Showing Progress

Boeing kicked off 2025 with a mission: fix the slip-ups from previous years and prove it can deliver. Air travel demand will always sway aerospace giants like Boeing, but this year, the company’s focus on internal improvements has investors hopeful.

The three big things Boeing had to get right were simple but tough:

• Increase production of the 737 MAX to 38 planes a month, then push even higher

• Boost profit margins in the defense sector, especially where fixed-price contracts bite

• Keep the 777X wide-body jet on schedule for its first delivery in 2026

So far? Boeing looks to be ticking these boxes.

CFO Brian West shared some good news on the last earnings call. The FAA has given the thumbs-up for expanded flight tests on the 777X, aiming for Lufthansa’s first delivery in 2026. Emirates, another big customer, also expects its planes by year-end 2026. Production of the 737 MAX? The plan is on track to hit 38 per month soon, with Ortberg eyeing a push to 42 and then increasing in increments of five, though that will take time.

But don’t get too comfy yet. Boeing still needs FAA’s nod that it can maintain quality at this pace before production limits are officially lifted. It’s a delicate balancing act—speed versus safety. So, the coming months will be telling.

Defense Division: A Rocky but Improving Path

The defense side of Boeing is a mixed bag. It brings in about 60% of revenue from core defense programs, which are showing decent profit margins — mid to high single digits. Another 25% comes from fighter jets and satellites, where margins are trending upward, which is encouraging.

However, the sticky wicket lies in the 15% tied to fixed-price contracts. These have been trouble spots, squeezing margins tight. Ortberg mentioned the company reached “stability” in estimated-at-completion (EAC) forecasts this quarter. That means Boeing now has a better grip on what these contracts will ultimately cost.

They’re aiming for better cost control come October. There’s reason to be cautiously optimistic: the T-7 training airplane project is hitting its milestones, and the MQ-25 drone, set for aerial refueling tests, is moving forward toward flight trials in 2026.

To give you a clearer picture, here’s a simple breakdown of Boeing’s Defense, Space & Security (BDS) profit sources:

Progress isn’t overnight, but these numbers help show where Boeing’s fighting its battles—and where it’s winning.

What’s Next for Boeing’s Stock?

Looking ahead, the company’s trajectory looks promising—assuming Ortberg and the team keep hitting their targets. Investors had plenty of reasons to be skeptical heading into 2025. Boeing was grappling with operational hiccups and market uncertainties.

Now? The company is “climbing a wall of worry,” as one analyst put it, and that’s a good thing. Stock rallies often happen when optimism returns gradually, not suddenly.

Still, the long haul is a different story. Boeing needs to demonstrate it can consistently generate enough earnings and cash flow. That’s crucial if it wants to fund the next generation of aircraft, manage debt, and return money to shareholders.

For now, though, it’s all about the immediate wins: ramping up the 737 MAX, keeping defense stable, and delivering the 777X on time.

The Market’s Bigger Picture: Boeing Versus the S&P 500

It’s hard not to notice Boeing’s stock outpacing the S&P 500’s gains this year. With a 13.6% jump compared to the S&P’s minimal lift, Boeing’s turnaround is attracting attention. But the broader market remains jittery about growth, valuations, and interest rates.

Boeing’s story is a reminder that sometimes, company-specific factors matter just as much as market trends. Here’s a quick glance at how Boeing stacks up:

Keep in mind, Boeing’s lack of a dividend and heavy debt load remain concerns for some investors.

Can Ortberg Keep the Momentum Alive?

Kelly Ortberg is still fairly new as CEO, but he’s making waves. His focus on operational discipline and realistic targets is winning confidence. The proof will be in the execution—no more promises, just results.

The stakes are high. Boeing is not just a company; it’s a symbol of American aerospace strength. If it falters, the ripple effects reach far beyond Wall Street.

For now, investors seem willing to give Boeing a shot, betting that this 2025 upswing is more than just a blip.