The UEFA Champions League group stage is reaching its climax, with four spots in the knockout phase still up for grabs. Some of the biggest names in European football are facing a do-or-die situation, while others are hoping to secure their place as group winners. Here are the key storylines and predictions for the final round of matches.
Man Utd Need a Miracle Against Bayern
Manchester United are in a precarious position in Group A, as they need to beat Bayern Munich at Old Trafford and hope that Atalanta do not win against Young Boys. The Red Devils have only a 9.4% chance of making it to the last 16, according to Opta’s projections. They have lost three of their five games so far, including a humiliating 5-0 defeat in Munich.
Bayern, on the other hand, have already secured their spot as group winners, with five wins out of five and a goal difference of +17. The German champions have been unstoppable in Europe this season, scoring 21 goals and conceding only four. They have also won their last seven away games in the competition, a club record.
Group F Is Wide Open
Group F is the most unpredictable and exciting group in the Champions League, with three teams still in contention for the two qualifying places. Borussia Dortmund are the only team that have already booked their ticket to the next round, with 10 points from five games. They will face Paris Saint-Germain, who are second with eight points, in a crucial clash at Signal Iduna Park.
PSG need a win to guarantee their progression, but a draw could also be enough if Newcastle United and AC Milan draw or lose their respective games. The French giants have been inconsistent in Europe this season, losing to Newcastle and Milan, but also beating Dortmund and Young Boys. They have the best attack in the group, with 14 goals scored, but also the worst defense, with 11 goals conceded.
Newcastle and Milan are both on seven points, and will face each other at St James’ Park in a winner-takes-all showdown. The Magpies have been the surprise package of the group, beating PSG and Dortmund at home, but also losing to Young Boys and Milan away. They have the advantage of playing at home, where they have won their last three Champions League games.
Milan, meanwhile, have been inconsistent in their return to the competition after a seven-year absence. They have beaten PSG and Newcastle, but also lost to Dortmund and Young Boys. They have the worst goal difference in the group, with -3, and will need to improve their defensive record if they want to advance.
Holders Man City Aim for Perfection
Manchester City are the reigning champions of Europe, and they have shown no signs of slowing down in their title defense. They have won all five of their games in Group C, scoring 16 goals and conceding only one. They have already secured their place as group winners, and will aim to complete a perfect group stage with a win over Crvena Zvezda in Belgrade.
The Serbian champions are bottom of the group, with only one point from five games. They have scored only two goals and conceded 15, the worst record in the competition. They have also lost their last four home games in the Champions League, conceding 16 goals in the process.
Manchester City are the biggest favourites of the round, with an 82.7% chance of beating Crvena Zvezda, according to Opta’s projections. They have also won their last six away games in the competition, scoring 18 goals and conceding only two. They have the best attack and the best defense in the group, and will look to maintain their momentum ahead of the knockout phase.
Other Groups Already Decided
The other four groups in the Champions League have already been decided, with the top two teams in each group confirmed. Here are the final standings and the qualified teams:
- Group B: Arsenal (15 points), PSV (10 points)
- Group D: Barcelona (13 points), Juventus (12 points)
- Group E: Chelsea (13 points), Ajax (10 points)
- Group G: Real Madrid (15 points), Inter (10 points)
The draw for the round of 16 will take place on Monday, December 13, and will pit the group winners against the runners-up, with teams from the same group or the same country not allowed to face each other. The first legs will be played on February 15-16 and 22-23, and the second legs on March 8-9 and 15-16.
