Netflix Aims for a $1 Trillion Valuation by 2030—Here’s What Could Get It There

It started with Apple in 2018. Now, a growing group of corporate giants have slipped past the elusive $1 trillion valuation mark. The latest contender? Netflix. The streaming pioneer says it has a real shot at reaching that milestone by the end of this decade.

Netflix isn’t just throwing darts at the wall. Executives believe that a disciplined, earnings-first playbook and a strong runway for margin expansion could double the company’s value over the next few years.

From Mail-Order DVDs to Half a Trillion

Remember when Netflix used to send red envelopes in the mail? Those days are long gone. With a current valuation hovering around $500 billion, Netflix has come a long way—and it’s now the biggest standalone media company on the planet.

Netflix doesn’t carry the baggage of linear TV. That helps. Traditional networks are bleeding viewers and ad dollars, while Netflix’s subscriber base continues to climb globally.

And the company’s not stopping there.

Margin Targets Are Driving the Strategy

It’s not often a company hits the margin targets it publicly sets. But Netflix does it again and again. The streaming giant is aiming for 29% in 2025—and it might actually exceed that in the first half of the year.

That might sound boring to some, but for Wall Street, it’s fireworks.

Why is this important? Because Netflix plans to triple its operating income by 2030. Not just double revenue—triple income. That means even more aggressive margin growth is baked in.

Here’s what that looks like on paper:

Even more telling? Netflix doesn’t need to pull off anything crazy to hit these goals. A couple of points margin expansion each year is enough. That’s how they’ve done it so far.

Ad-Supported Tier: Opportunity or Distraction?

Advertising has made its way into Netflix’s world. The company launched a cheaper, ad-supported tier not long ago—and so far, the numbers are promising.

But here’s the catch: ads don’t behave like subscriptions. Subscription revenue is as steady as a metronome. Advertising, not so much. Economic downturns? Budget cuts? It all shows up fast in ad sales.

Netflix execs expect ad revenue to double in 2025 and balloon into a $9 billion business by 2030.

That’s a big bet. Some of that growth will depend on how well Netflix manages its dual audience:

• Viewers willing to pay more for no ads

• Viewers okay with ads in exchange for a lower price

One misstep in pricing or content strategy, and either audience could flinch. Netflix has to walk a tightrope here.

Cash Flow: The Secret Weapon

Netflix is finally seeing its content investment strategy pay off—literally.

After years of borrowing to fund original productions, the company turned the cash-flow corner in 2022. In 2024, it expects to pull in $8 billion in free cash flow.

That cash gives Netflix options. Lots of them.

It can:

• Buy more content rights

• Develop new series in-house

• Acquire smaller players

• Repurchase stock

And most importantly? It can do all this without asking investors for more capital. That’s a major win in a high-interest-rate environment.

Competition Isn’t Slowing Down

The streaming landscape is crowded—more than ever. Disney+, Max, Amazon Prime Video, Hulu, and a dozen others all fight for time and eyeballs.

This makes Netflix’s price hikes a delicate dance. Yes, the company has pricing power, but it’s not unlimited.

Consumers are savvy. If they feel they’re not getting enough bang for their buck, they’ll churn. Even if the next hit series is right around the corner.

So Netflix must keep justifying its higher subscription fees through:

• Better, more binge-worthy content

• Smart bundling or incentives

• Ongoing innovation in content formats and engagement

That means Netflix’s content team carries just as much weight in hitting the $1 trillion goal as the finance department.

Valuation Math Checks Out—But Markets Are Fickle

Assuming Netflix hits $30 billion in operating income by 2030, it would only need a valuation multiple of around 32 times earnings to reach $1 trillion.

That’s well below its historical multiple, which has often soared past 40x.

So yeah, the math adds up.

But markets don’t always follow math.

Investor sentiment can shift. Macro conditions can bite. A single bad quarter or subscriber miss can knock billions off a company’s valuation.

Still, there’s something comforting—almost boring—about Netflix’s approach. They’re not banking on moonshots. They’re sticking to a playbook that’s worked for over a decade.

Even if it doesn’t break the trillion-dollar tape in 2030, it’s hard to argue the company isn’t marching in the right direction.