Electric truck maker Rivian is in a bit of a squeeze. With rising production costs, scaled-back government incentives, and a tougher EV market, the company faces serious hurdles over the next few years. Yet it’s not all doom and gloom — some big moves are still in the works.
Tariffs and Supply Chain Headaches Driving Up Vehicle Prices
Rivian may build its electric trucks and SUVs on American soil, but that doesn’t mean it’s immune to trade policy. Recent tariffs imposed by former President Trump are already rattling the supply chain, and Rivian’s bottom line is feeling the hit.
Parts may be sourced domestically, but it’s never that simple. CEO RJ Scaringe made that clear earlier this year. A car isn’t just built — it’s assembled from a global web of suppliers, each with their own dependencies.
And when tariffs get slapped on, the costs trickle down.
Scaringe has warned that these new tariffs are pushing Rivian’s costs up by thousands of dollars per vehicle. That’s a tough pill to swallow, especially when the base R1T already starts at $70,000. For a company still in growth mode, every dollar matters.
But there’s another side to this.
Tariffs don’t just hit the wallet — they also slow momentum. Higher costs may eventually get passed on to customers. And when interest rates are also elevated? Well, that’s just another reason for would-be buyers to hit pause.
Rivian isn’t alone in this either. Even Tesla has warned about the long-term impact of global trade restrictions on EV production.
Fading Incentives Threaten EV Momentum
The U.S. government once acted like a jetpack for electric vehicle sales. Now, it’s more like a parachute.
For years, tax credits helped offset the high sticker prices that come with EVs. But that runway is ending. By the close of 2025, the $7,500 federal EV tax credit will vanish for many buyers, thanks to changes in budget legislation.
That hurts. Especially since Rivian’s vehicles, which didn’t qualify for the credit due to price caps, still benefited indirectly through leasing workarounds. Those loopholes are closing fast.
And it’s not just about the cars.
Billions of dollars earmarked for charging infrastructure are also tied up in a court battle. A group of over a dozen states is suing the federal government to stop it from pulling back EV funding that was approved under the Biden administration.
One judge has already said the funds must be distributed, but the legal saga isn’t over.
It’s a risky game.
Without the right incentives and infrastructure, EV adoption could stall — or even reverse. People aren’t just buying EVs; they’re investing in a whole new lifestyle. That means chargers, networks, and affordability all need to be in sync.
Right now, that system’s looking shaky.
Cheaper Models Are Coming — But Will They Arrive Soon Enough?
There’s some light on the horizon, though. Rivian isn’t standing still. It has new vehicles coming — and they’re expected to be way more affordable.
Production numbers from the second quarter weren’t exactly something to brag about. Output dropped 38% year over year. Deliveries also slipped, down 23%. But there’s a reason for the dip.
The company is retooling to get ready for a whole new set of vehicles.
Sometime in 2026, Rivian is set to launch the R2, R3, and R3X models. These are smaller, more accessible, and — crucially — cheaper. The R2 is expected to start around $45,000, a massive step down from today’s $70,000+ R1T and R1S lineup.
That could be a game-changer for Rivian’s audience.
• A lower price point opens the door to middle-class buyers
• Smaller vehicles fit more urban needs
• New models could boost production and delivery volume
This is what could move Rivian from niche to mainstream — if they can hit production goals and keep quality high.
Rivian’s Stock Struggles Reflect Market Skepticism
It hasn’t exactly been a good year for Rivian stock. The company’s current share price sits around $13, with a 52-week range between $9.50 and $18.86. That’s a far cry from the hype levels after its 2021 IPO.
Here’s a quick look at key numbers:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | $15 Billion |
| Q2 Vehicle Production | 5,979 (↓ 38%) |
| Q2 Deliveries | 10,661 (↓ 23%) |
| Gross Margin | -15.10% |
| 52-Week Range | $9.50 – $18.86 |
| Average Daily Volume | 30.3 Million |
A gross margin of -15.10% shows that Rivian is still burning more cash than it brings in. That’s not unusual for young automakers, but it does create added pressure to prove itself — and fast.
Wall Street has taken notice. While some analysts still believe in Rivian’s long-term story, others have shifted focus to companies with stronger balance sheets and better unit economics.
Still, investors like Chris Neiger are holding tight, betting on Rivian’s ability to scale.
The Next 36 Months Could Define Rivian’s Future
Let’s not sugarcoat it — the road ahead looks rough.
Tariffs are making vehicles more expensive to build. Government support for EVs is drying up. And inflation is keeping buyers cautious. These factors aren’t going away anytime soon.
But there’s also hope.
Rivian is investing in a product lineup that could transform its image — from a luxury EV maker to a mainstream brand. If it can manage costs, build efficiently, and price smartly, it still has a shot.
It won’t be easy.
The next few years will test everything — from Rivian’s factory floor to its leadership strategy to its appeal with customers. It’s a high-wire act in a high-stakes market.
And for investors? It’s definitely not a stock to sleep on.
