UK Food Export Volumes Fall as Chocolate Imports Rise

UK food and drink export volumes fell 11.7% in the first half of 2026, to 4.0bn kg, the Food and Drink Federation said. The trade gap widened to £21.1bn, the largest since 2000, as imports held near record levels.

Whisky, beef and lamb still grew. Chocolate going the other way did not: Britain sold £442.1m of it and bought £1.5bn. The Treasury’s cost-of-living answer, announced in May, was a supermarket tariff holiday that still includes a biscuit and chocolate list under review.

The Third-Weakest Start Since 2000

The federation’s H1 2026 Trade Snapshot, built from customs data and published on 25 September, puts export value at £12.0bn ($15.88bn), down 3.4% from £12.4bn a year earlier. Food and non-alcoholic drink made up £8.5bn of that, down 4.7%. Import value rose 0.9% to £33.1bn. The arithmetic is blunt: £33.1bn in, £12.0bn out, a £21.1bn hole.

THE HALF-YEAR GAP

• Export value: £12.0bn, down 3.4% on the first half of 2025.
• Export weight: 4.0bn kg, down 11.7%, the third-weakest H1 since 2000.
• Import value: £33.1bn, up 0.9%, with 19.1bn kg of food still coming in.
• The gap: £21.1bn, the largest the federation records since 2000.

A sterling record this size is easy to print after a quarter century of rising prices. Julian Jessop, an independent economist, estimated the food trade gap at about 1.3% of GDP in the half, roughly in line with 2022 and 2023 and below 2024. The tonnes are the harder number. At 4.0bn kg, food export volumes were the third lowest this millennium, with only H1 2021, in the pandemic, and H1 2002, after foot-and-mouth, weaker.

Weight was down 5.0% even against 2024. Drink measured in litres rose 13.9% to 672.1m, and litres of pure alcohol rose 1.8% to 234.3m. Britain is still moving bottles. It is moving a lot less food.

The first-quarter snapshot had already shown the slide. Export volumes then were at their lowest levels in a decade outside the pandemic, 2.0bn kg, down 8.9%, and about a third below the first quarter of 2019. Karen Betts, chief executive of the federation, said the deficit is now the largest it has been in over 25 years.

In a world beset by conflict and the ever-increasing impacts of climate change, this poses some stark questions about our food security.

Karen Betts, Chief Executive, Food and Drink Federation

She pointed to constantly changing regulation and high compliance costs that leave UK producers “uncompetitive both here and abroad.” The snapshot’s author, senior economic analyst Uros Milosevic, also flagged rising energy, ingredient, logistics, labour and regulatory costs. The federation forecasts food inflation at 3.9% by December 2026 and a peak of 6.4% in July 2027, and wrote that a sector squeezed at home cannot be expected to seize chances abroad.

Whisky Held Up While Salmon Collapsed

The product list is not a uniform slump. Whisky, still the country’s biggest food and drink export, rose 2.2% in value to £2.5bn and 5.8% in volume, more than a fifth of all sales. Beef jumped 22.7% in value. Lamb rose 15.4%. Cheese volumes rose 15.4% even as the value of those shipments fell 4.6%. Soft drinks rose 9.8% in value. Gin ticked up.

Salmon went the other way, down 30.8% in value to £406.0m and 31.0% in volume. Milk and cream fell 9.9% and 13.2%. Chocolate exports slipped 2.9% to £442.1m. Savoury snacks rose in value and fell 6.8% in volume.

TOP TEN FOOD AND DRINK EXPORTS, H1 2026

Cheese, beef and whisky all recorded volume growth, the federation said, while products measured in litres were up 13.9%. The pattern underneath the headline is a thinner food trade sitting beside a drinks trade that is still filling bottles.

Why UK Ice Cream Faces a 30% US Tariff

Sales to the United States, the UK’s third-largest food and drink export market, fell 16.5% in the half. UK goods face an extra stacked 10% US tariff on top of ordinary most-favoured-nation duties, while EU goods generally face only the 10% baseline. That gap is widest where the underlying US duty is already high.

US TARIFF STACK, UK VERSUS EU

Ice cream from Britain therefore lands in the US at 30%, ten points above the same product from the EU. Confectionery faces 15.6% against 10%. The federation said the latest round of US tariffs is likely to deepen that disadvantage. In the first quarter, US-bound food and drink had already fallen 28.0% to £529.6m, while US shipments into Britain rose 11.5% to £419.5m, shrinking the UK surplus with America from £359m to £110m.

China fell 17.6%. Three years after the Australia and New Zealand deals entered force, exports to Australia were up 3.0% and exports to New Zealand were down 24.7%. India rose 10.1% in the half, before the UK-India deal entered force on 15 July and began a decade of staged tariff cuts.

Ireland and France Still Buy the Most

The EU still took 59.2% of export value, £7.1bn, down 0.9%. Non-EU markets took £4.9bn, down 6.9%. Ireland, the largest buyer, fell 4.9%. France fell 4.6%. The federation blamed extra post-Brexit cost and paperwork, plus uneven enforcement of the rules across member states.

The sharper drop sat outside the bloc. Exports to the UAE fell 23.4% as the war with Iran disrupted Middle East trade. The snapshot’s public note called that “nearly a quarter.” CPTPP expansion is the federation’s listed way back into some of those markets: Indonesia, the Philippines, Uruguay and the UAE are seeking to join, which could cut tariffs that now block UK food.

Mercosur already shows how lopsided that map can look. The UK bought £1.2bn of food and drink from the bloc in the half and sold £137.4m the other way. The federation called that a chance to grow sales if firms get help using the access, and it also said policy still has to prioritise the biggest existing markets, where a small gain in share would move more sterling than a new one.

Chocolate Imports Already Outrun British Sales

Import volumes of food reached 19.1bn kg, the second-highest first half since 2000, behind only H1 2025. That was down 2.5% on last year and up 3.0% on 2024. Non-EU food import volumes are 22% higher than in H1 2023, more than double the 9.2% rise in EU import volumes over the same stretch. EU suppliers still provided 67.9% of import value, £22.5bn. Non-EU suppliers provided £10.6bn.

WHAT BRITAIN BOUGHT

• Fruit: £3.1bn, up 1.4% in value, down 8.2% in volume.
• Vegetables: £2.1bn, up 6.7%.
• Poultry: £1.9bn, up 3.3% in value and 3.5% in volume.
• Wine: £1.6bn, down 2.7%.
• Chocolate: £1.5bn, up 2.4% in value and 6.9% in volume, more than three times the £442.1m Britain sold.

Fish, savoury snacks, beef, cheese and soft drinks each came in around £1.1bn to £1.2bn. Snack imports rose 5.9% in value while UK snack exports were £275.6m. Beef imports rose 11.6% even as UK beef exports were one of the half’s stronger lines. The home market is taking more of the same categories British plants are trying to sell abroad.

On Brazilian meat, the split with Brussels is already visible. The EU restricted those imports from 3 September 2026. Great Britain still allows them pending its own assessment. Under a UK-EU sanitary deal, the federation noted, Britain would have to match equivalent restrictions, which would hit a non-EU flow that has been growing faster than EU supply.

Most of the Tariff Holiday Was Already Free

On 21 May 2026, then chancellor Rachel Reeves told the Commons she was suspending tariffs on supermarket foods, “over 100 different foods,” and that she expected supermarkets to pass the savings on in full. A consultation on a second list of about 125 everyday items, including biscuits, chocolate, bread, crisps and baked beans, ran from 27 May to 24 June.

THE TARIFF CALENDAR

1. 21 May 2026: Reeves announces a supermarket tariff holiday as part of the cost-of-living response to the Iran war.
2. 21 June 2026: The first agricultural tariff package takes effect, covering some fruits, fruit juices, pasta, couscous and tuna, through 31 December 2028.
3. 24 June 2026: The call for input on the 125-item list, plus fertiliser and kerosene, closes. The government says it is reviewing responses.
4. 15 July 2026: The UK-India trade deal enters force, after a half in which food and drink sales to India had already risen 10.1%.
5. 25 September 2026: The federation publishes the H1 snapshot and asks that tariff suspensions strengthen domestic manufacturing rather than favour overseas competitors.

The first package landed only in the last 10 days of the half, so it does not explain the H1 import bill. The biscuit and chocolate list had not been signed off in that snapshot either. What the federation did say is that nearly 90% of the import value in the cost-of-living package already enters tariff-free. Cutting duties on finished goods that UK plants already make, it warned, can weaken Britain’s hand in later trade talks, because partners have less reason to open their own markets.

That is the policy irony sitting on top of the tonnes. Britain already buys more than three times as much chocolate as it sells. The open list still treats chocolate, biscuits, bread and snacks as cost-of-living relief. The federation’s four asks on 25 September were simpler regulation at home, tariff suspensions that do not hand shelf space to overseas plants, better use of the free-trade deals already signed, and a UK-EU sanitary agreement that actually levels the field for exporters.

Farmers Want a Plan Before the October Budget

Tom Bradshaw, president of the National Farmers’ Union, called the figures a wake-up call. He has been arguing since June that food security is national security, and he used the same line again against the H1 gap.

If government is serious about food security, economic growth and national resilience, it must create the conditions that give businesses the confidence to invest, innovate and grow.

Tom Bradshaw, President, National Farmers’ Union

He said a strong food manufacturing sector depends on a strong farming sector, and that the widening deficit underlines the need for a long-term plan that backs British production. Farm groups have spent the year describing a different squeeze: the worst drought in 50 years, a record bluetongue outbreak, and fuel and fertiliser costs tied to the Iran war. British farms, on that telling, are being asked to match import prices set by producers who work under different rules and heavier state support.

The next hard date on that calendar is the Budget on 30 October, where the NFU wants production costs cut. The 125-item biscuit and chocolate list is still waiting on a decision, and the tonnes already shipped in the first half will not move when it comes.